97.5% one-day Value at Risk Synthetic example
511,773 USD
Expected Shortfall 617,885.16 USD, on a book of 12,000,000 USD.
- Method
- Historical Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall, empirical order statistic
- Confidence
- 0.975
- Horizon
- 1 day. Each observation already spans it, so nothing is rescaled
- Currency
- USD
- Expected Shortfall
- 617,885.16 USD, the mean of the 25 largest losses
- Observations
- 1,000, as of 12 September 2026
- Sign convention
- Loss is positive. A negative value is a gain and is not floored at zero
- Data mode
- Synthetic. A drawn sample, not market data and not a real book
- Source
- Reproduce with
numpy.random.default_rng(7).standard_t(4, 1000) * 180000, rounded to whole USD - Input digest
- sha256 1cf2b44607c3ddbdd5b64f3218f7622fa9f68dc9fa8d8da3439607186c460f7c
- Assumptions
-
- Equally weighted empirical distribution.
- Sample dependence and forecast validity are not tested.
- Expected Shortfall integrates fractional tail mass.
- Degraded
- false. Nothing was missing or substituted
Returned by the risk_tail tool of the public Risk Desk endpoint, called with no arguments, on 10 November 2026. Risk Desk 0.2.0. Research software, not investment advice.